Quarterly International Trade Outlook (QITO) for Q3 2016

The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), in partnership with DHL, has launched its Quarterly International Trade Outlook for Q3 – July to September – 2016.

Q3 2016 QITO

The QITO report is designed to give British businesses a better understanding of international opportunities, with a focus on dynamic new markets. It also features a Trade Confidence Index, which provides insight into the UK’s trade with countries outside of the European Union.

In his foreword to the document, DHL Express UK & Ireland CEO Phil Couchman said: “This Quarterly International Trade Outlook demonstrates the resilience of manufacturing exporters as they defy predictions with an increased number reporting export sales and orders to be on the up.”

He also highlighted that, with continued uncertainty surrounding Brexit implications, businesses are now seeking advice and reassurance about getting their goods and services overseas, and that DHL will continue to work closely with the government to ensure that international trade remains accessible.

Adam Marshall, Director General at BCC, called upon the Chancellor to use the Autumn Statement to “fire up the animal spirits of our exporters, and boost business confidence”. He also emphasised that advice, encouragement and assistance is easily available to businesses at a local level.

“Enabling businesses to attend trade missions, trade fairs, commission market research or make themselves export ready would be a shot in the arm for our trade performance at a time of uncertainty.”

Trade Confidence Index
The Trade Confidence Index stands at 121.69. This represents a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.1 per cent, but a year-on-year increase of 5.3 per cent.

Britain’s regions and nations
The largest quarter-on-quarter increases in export documentation were in the North West (7.0 per cent) and Wales (6.2 per cent). Although the remaining regions and nations saw a decrease in volume on the previous quarter.

Export sales and orders
In the manufacturing sector, the balance of firms reporting improvements in export sales over the previous three months rose to +17 per cent in Q3 2016. Those reporting improved export orders also rose to +12 per cent in Q3. However, the services sector saw a slowdown in growth.

Trade and Economic Outlook
The World Trade Organization (WTO) is expecting 1.7 per cent growth in world trade in 2016. The WTO expects global trade growth of between 1.8 per cent and 3.1 per cent in 2017.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its forecast for global growth for 2016 from 3.2 per cent to 3.1 per cent, and for 2017 from 3.5 per cent to 3.4 per cent.

The service sector and consumer spending remain the main drivers of UK economic growth.

Destination profiles
The Q3 2016 QITO includes fact sheets for Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Each fact sheet includes an economic snapshot, opportunities for UK businesses, market strengths, cultural tips, and Customs tips.

The BCC Global Business Network
The BCC has been working to launch a dynamic new programme to help British businesses trade internationally: the BCC Global Business Network. This gives members access to an agile, responsive, and supportive business network on a global scale. You can find out more about the programme in the Q3 2016 QITO report.

Download the Q3 2016 QITO here.

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