Quarterly International Trade Outlook (QITO) for Q2 2016

The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), in partnership with DHL, has launched its Quarterly International Trade Outlook for Q2 – April to June – 2016.

Q2 2016 QITO 

The QITO report is designed to give British businesses a better understanding of international opportunities, with a focus on dynamic new markets. It also features a Trade Confidence Index, which provides insight into the UK’s trade with countries outside of the European Union, particularly high growth markets such as Asia and Africa.

In his foreword to the document, DHL Express UK & Ireland’s CEO Phil Couchman called upon everyone to work together to “champion solutions that will ensure cross border trade continues to be as smooth as possible” in light of the UK’s vote to leave the European Union, and highlighted that UK exporters should make the most of the current climate:

“British products remain an internationally recognised hallmark of quality and, with the fall in the value of the pound, British exporters should seize this opportunity to sell their goods more competitively overseas”.

Dr Adam Marshall, Acting Director General at BCC, proposes that priority needs to be given to supporting businesses that are looking to access new markets, through funding for trade missions and trade fair attendance.

“Fixing the fundamentals of our ageing infrastructure and ensuring businesses can get the right skills have never been more important, as firms look for new ways to get goods and services to markets overseas.”

Trade Confidence Index
The Trade Confidence Index stands at 126.95. This represents a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.4 per cent, and a year-on-year increase of 4.83 per cent. This is the highest since records began in 2004.

Britain’s regions and nations
The smallest quarter-on-quarter increases in export document volumes were in the East Midlands (0.5 per cent) and the West Midlands (2.5 per cent), while there was a decrease in Northern Ireland (-3 per cent).

Export Sales and orders
In the manufacturing sector, the balance of firms reporting improvements in export sales over the previous three months rose to +9% in Q2 2016. Firms in Scotland and the North East reported the largest export growth.

Trade and Economic Outlook
The World Trade Organization (WTO) is expecting a 2.8 per cent growth in world trade in 2016. The WTO expects global trade growth to rise to 3.6 per cent in 2017.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its forecast for global growth in 2016 to 3.1 per cent, and to 3.4 per cent in 2017.

The service sector and consumer spending remain the main drivers of UK economic growth, which rose by 0.6 per cent in Q2. This is an increase on the 0.4 per cent recorded in Q1. GDP was up 2.2 per cent annually.

The US economy grew at an annual rate of 1.2 per cent in Q2 2016, up from 0.8 per cent in Q1. China’s economy grew by 6.7 per cent annually in Q2 2016, whilst the Eurozone economy grew by 0.3 per cent.

Destination profiles
The Q2 2016 QITO includes fact sheets for South Africa, Morocco, and South Korea. Each fact sheet includes an economic snapshot, opportunities for UK businesses, market strengths, cultural tips, and Customs tips.

Download the Q2 2016 QITO here.


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