In partnership with DHL, the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) has released its latest Quarterly International Trade Outlook (QITO) for July to September 2019.
The QITO report gives a better understanding of new markets and the international opportunities they can create for British businesses. It also includes the Trade Conference Index which measures the UK’s exporting health and gives a detailed analysis of trends in trade documentation issued by accredited Chambers of Commerce.
In the Q3 2019 QITO report, findings show that exporting manufacturers have undergone large declines. The percentage balance of exporting manufacturers reporting an increase in export orders fell to -1 per cent, down from +9 per cent in the previous quarter. For exporting service sector firms, zero per cent reported an increase in export orders, down from +5 per cent in Q2 2019.
The BCC/DHL Trade Conference Index (TCI), which measures the volume of trade documentation used internationally, now stands at 124.47. This is an increase of 2 per cent on Q2 2019 and 3 per cent on Q3 of the previous year. The TCI provides insight into the UK’s trade with countries outside of the European Union, particularly high growth markets such as Asia and Africa.
Shannon Diett, VP of Marketing, DHL Express UK, said: “This quarter’s report shows clearly that it continues to be a challenging environment for UK exporters. However, despite these headwinds, efforts made by businesses to maintain focus on expansion have translated into an encouraging rise in the Trade Confidence Index.”
The Global Economy
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its growth outlook for the global economy for 2019 from 3.2 per cent to 3 per cent, and for 2020 from 3.5 per cent to 3.4 per cent.
The Eurozone economy grew by 0.2 per cent in Q3 2019, unchanged from the previous quarter. The US economy grew at an annualised rate of 1.9 per cent, slightly weaker than the previous quarter. China’s economy grew by 6 per cent in Q3, the weakest growth since Q1 1992 and down from growth of 6.2 per cent in Q2.
The UK economy grew by 0.3 per cent in Q3 2019, up from the 0.2 per cent recorded in the previous three-month period.
The World Trade Organisation currently forecasts world trade growth of 1.2 per cent this year and 2.7 per cent by 2020. The BCC currently expects that UK exports will grow by 1.3 per cent in 2019 and 1.3 per cent by 2020.
Included in the Q3 2019 report are fact sheets for Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Norway. Each fact sheet includes an economic snapshot, market strengths and cultural tips. They also include a breakdown of where there are opportunities for UK businesses.
Read the full Q3 2019 QITO